Tariffs, trade routes, and the new port playbook

By the time you read this the tariffs regime in the United States (US) will likely have changed from when the author wrote it.

Nothing could symbolise the volatile nature of the global trade system more right now than this fact, and in particular the huge tariffs being imposed on China by the US in order to rebuild the US manufacturing base.

When China joined the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in 2001, it triggered a historic surge in global trade — supercharging manufacturing, accelerating the container revolution, and vaulting Chinese ports into the top ranks globally. But that growth story is now colliding with geopolitical headwinds. Tariffs are back. Trade flows are rapidly shifting. And ports, once the passive nodes of global commerce, are now strategic chokepoints in a high-stakes economic standoff.

So, shipping lines, fleet managers, and port authorities are having to make informed, agile decisions in the face of instability and the rapidly changing economics of distribution. This isn’t new: COVID and other disruptions are still fresh in the memory.

But now there is a new level of reliable data and port intelligence to enable the whole industry to be more agile and able to respond. Stakeholders can know which ports are available in real time so that they can plan where their ships can easily enter and exit and, if possible, avoid congestion.

Feargal Hogan has been tracking and monitoring ports for 35 years and he is now LR OneOcean’s Product Manager for Port Solutions. He sees the impact of shipping lines diverting vessels to avoid tariffs or delay cargo entry. He says the signs are that US ports are going to suffer.

“The Port of Seattle were saying they had just two ships planned to arrive in the next week, whereas a year ago they would have had two a day.”

The scale of disruption is hard to assess but likely to be significant. Nearly 28% of all commercial vessels globally have a connection to China — whether by build, ownership, or flag. In early 2024, approximately one in three vessels calling at US ports were built in China. When factoring in other Chinese links, nearly half of vessel calls were associated in some way with China. If tariffs extend to all ships with Chinese connections, as some policy proposals suggest, the result could be even greater dislocation.

Containerlift reported that there has been a 25% decline in daily container bookings from China to the US. So, if the US continues to impose tariffs on ships linked to China in this way, the disruption can only get worse.

And rerouting is pushing traffic into alternative ports across the world. All the evidence is that there has been a surge in Europe’s busiest ports. For example, reports from Antwerp and Rotterdam suggest they have had recent weeks where they have had to cope with five or six times the normal traffic.

The challenge: most ports struggle to cope with sudden spikes or crashes in volume. 

“They were built for a very different economy,” added Marco Del Percio, OneOcean’s Product Manager for APIs. “Port infrastructure doesn’t flex on demand. You can reroute cargo in days, but it takes years to expand a port.”

As trade policies ripple through every level of the supply chain, data becomes the ultimate edge. That’s where up to date, verified and comprehensive port data plays a critical role.

For example, the OneOcean Ports API data solution delivers real-time visibility into more than 3,250 global ports, covering everything from berth-level data to congestion and vessel types. And it’s not just data — it’s actionable insight.

“Fleet managers can see, in real-time, how busy a port is, what type of vessels are arriving, and how long they’re staying,” Marco explained. “And through our APIs you can choose to integrate that directly into your ops dashboard, so you can digest it and analyse it in a way that works for you.”

"Long distance voyages are already complex," Feargal points out, "with many stops to pick up and drop off cargo."

“The big container operators are building bigger ships carrying more containers from China and stopping off along the way.” He describes a typical trip. “It’s not economical to run a single ship from China to, let’s say, Rotterdam.  What you have to do is to run it from China, through two or three ports, down to Singapore, across to Sri Lanka or India, up to Suez, into Southern Europe first and then around the corner and up into Rotterdam.” 

It already meant port data like that from OneOcean was critical for many shipping companies. Now, with the need to adjust routes, this becomes even more of a requirement. 

When a container ship might be deciding between Long Beach, Lázaro Cárdenas, or skipping the US entirely, or night shifts are being added to ports in Latin America and Asia to absorb displaced volume, real time information about what’s available, where and when drives decision-making.  And it’s becoming even more important when your competitors are using better data to adjust strategy hours or days ahead of you.

Feargal said it best: “These disruptions are here to stay, and having in-depth data available can only improve the industry’s ability to respond.” 

Marco says the redirected cargo will have an impact everyone managing shipping will want to know about.

“The indirect consequence of this will be congestion generated somewhere else that wasn’t ready to hold that capacity, and people will want to monitor that - and our service was set up for that.”

The alternative? Get a third-party company to do the analysis for you or hire data scientists, pay for the data and get them to do the queries for you.

Feargal puts it simply: “I don’t think it’s easy to do.”

Whether it’s John Deere relocating tractor production, or container operators rescheduling loops to avoid penalties, the industry is entering a new phase — one where information determines resilience.

Contact us for a demo of the OneOcean Ports API — your single source of truth for regularly updated and expert-verified port data. Let’s make data your competitive advantage.